The Department of Energy’s Demonstrate Deploy Decarbonize (“Deploy”) annual conference and Pathways to Commercial Liftoff (“Liftoff”) Reports share a common goal of facilitating discussion and action around accelerating commercialization and deployment of clean energy technology.
To date, DOE has released a series of Liftoff Reports that provide public and private sector capital allocators with a perspective as to how and when various technologies could reach full-scale commercial adoption – including a common analytical fact base and key signposts for investment decisions. The Deploy conference offers industry leaders and investors the opportunity to meet and discuss how to advance shared clean energy priorities in these constantly evolving markets. And, input and takeaways captured from Deploy conferences will feed into both new Liftoff report topics and existing reports as updates.
To learn more about the Liftoff Reports and how DOE collaborates with the private sector to provide sector-specific perspectives for capital allocators, visit About Liftoff Reports.
U.S. domestic nuclear capacity has the potential to triple from ~100 GW in 2024 to ~300 GW by 2050—driven by deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. Nuclear provides a differentiated value proposition for a decarbonized grid. Nuclear generates carbon-free electricity, provides firm power that complements renewables, has low land-use requirements, and has lower transmission requirements than distributed or site-constrained generation sources. It also offers high-paying jobs and significant regional economic benefits, can aid in an equitable transition to a net-zero grid, and has a wide variety of use cases that enable grid flexibility and decarbonization beyond the grid, including high temperatures for industrial heat.
A new Liftoff update reflects updates from the past year including the impacts of unprecedented load growth (utilities are now issuing extreme IRP updates for AI, data centers, manufacturing, electrification, etc.), renewed interest in large reactors (customers are now saying they value having a complete constructed design, a supply chain, and a workforce), and the value of the existing fleet (in 2022, reactors were being shut down; in 2024, there are plans to restart closed reactors and most nuclear sites have room for more reactors), and more!
Learn more & download the full Advanced Nuclear Liftoff report here.
Carbon management is a vital component of the U.S. strategy to achieve net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050. Carbon management is an umbrella term for capturing, transporting, using, and storing carbon dioxide, and includes both point-source CCS technology, along with Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) pathways such as direct air capture (DAC). In the U.S., carbon management is already underway on a small but growing scale. Globally, dozens of CCUS projects are in operation today across many emissions sources, and dedicated geologic CO2 storage has been demonstrated at scale without incident for decades in well-regulated markets across North America, Europe, and Australia. There has been a meaningful shift in the commercial landscape of carbon management in the U.S., with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law providing $12B in funding for carbon management pilots, demonstrations, and infrastructure projects, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) reforming the 45Q tax credit to significantly increase the value and bankability of tax credits for a range of carbon management activities.
Learn more & download the full Carbon Management Liftoff report here.
By 2050, clean hydrogen could reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 10-25%. Clean hydrogen can replace fossil-based “grey” hydrogen in industrial applications like ammonia production and oil refining and can produce low-carbon fuels for transportation sectors like maritime and aviation. Over the last year, R&D breakthroughs (including the development of new clean hydrogen production pathways), a 25% increase in announced production capacity, and supportive policy development (e.g., H2Hubs announcements in the United States, contract-for-difference programs in Japan and Europe) have generated enthusiasm in the space. However, the commercial scale up of clean hydrogen production in the United States has been challenged by higher production costs and continued policy uncertainty. More work needs to be done to bring clean hydrogen projects online by 2030 so that 2050 targets can be met on time.
Learn more & download the full Clean Hydrogen Liftoff report here.
The U.S. chemicals and refining sectors are the lynchpin of modern society, and their CO2 emissions reflect that. The sectors produce critical inputs for transportation, electricity, heat, plastics, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals and more. Chemicals production and refining accounted for ~11% (~533MT) of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2021 and ~38% of all industrial energy-related CO2 emissions. To remain on track with national industrial decarbonization goals, chemicals and refining production must reduce emissions by ~35% through 2030 and more than ~90% by 2050. With the complex processes involved in the chemicals and refining production, the sectors must leverage a suite of decarbonization options. Today through the mid-2030s, ~20% of production emissions reductions could be achieved by the application of a suite of measures that are economic now without further government support. Achieving decarbonization across the chemicals & refining industries will be challenging without end-use shifts by consumers and coordinated efforts across all relevant companies and governments, only further highlighting the importance of near-term action.
Learn more & download the full Decarbonizing Chemicals & Refining Liftoff report here.
Addressing rising US electricity demand will require a portfolio approach to meet near-term needs while paving the way to support long-term growth and stay on the path to a clean energy future. The Liftoff reports highlight the opportunity to invest now in clean generation and storage (e.g. advanced nuclear, offshore wind, next gen geothermal), enhance the existing grid with advanced grid solutions (e.g., grid enhancing technologies, advanced reconductoring), and more efficiently serve demand with deployment of virtual power plants. Electricity demand growth today elevates the need for commercial liftoff of multiple power sector technologies; accelerating liftoff for these technologies could collectively add hundreds of gigawatts of capacity to help meet demand needs by the mid-2030s. Industry – including utilities, grid operators, and large-load customers (e.g., data centers, manufacturers) – with support from federal and state policymakers and regulators can act today to proactively prioritize these technologies to ensure investment flows toward improved energy solutions.
Learn more & download the full Electricity Demand Growth Liftoff topic brief here.
Geothermal heating and cooling technologies are important and underutilized solutions for supporting a more resilient, efficient, and affordable national energy system, as well as reducing emission from buildings. Both Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHPs) and Thermal Energy Networks (TENs) are transformative technologies that are highly efficient, versatile in their deployment, and provide solutions for many ongoing problems facing America’s built infrastructure. The efficient electrification of buildings is contributing to projections that suggest the U.S. power grid is entering a new era of potentially unprecedented growth, and peak power demand may also be entering a new era of growth in both summer and winter. With liftoff, these technologies can play a key part in building energy resilience, maximizing efficiency, and cultivating a skilled workforce.
Learn more & download the full Geothermal Heating and Cooling Liftoff topic brief here.
Up to 40% of CO2e emissions across eight industrial sectors in the U.S. could be abated with existing net-positive decarbonization levers (10%+ IRR with IRA incentives) or external factors (e.g., grid decarbonization, recycling, transport electrification). Across studied U.S. industrial sectors, ~27% of chemicals, ~14% of refining, and ~32% of cement emissions could be abated with these net-positive decarbonization levers. However, to achieve adoption at scale of deployable technology levers will require bold leadership. Overall, DOE’s Liftoff report estimates that the capital expenditure alone – not including R&D or operating expense changes – to reach net zero by 2050 could require $700–1,100B of potential capital expenditure.
The time is now for investment. Carbon-intensive industrial sectors are facing a critical inflection point with the support of BIL/IRA and global attention on accelerating deep decarbonization, this is a unique moment that neither American industry nor DOE can allow to pass. There are early private sector movers who are seeing opportunity and seizing it where it works for their business. Industrial decarbonization can put industry, their communities, and the United States in the driver’s seat.
Learn more & download the full Industrial Decarbonization Liftoff report here.
Multiple advanced grid solutions are commercially available today to help grid operators and regulators address near-term grid capacity and reliability priorities and modernize the grid—without increasing costs for ratepayers. Deploying these solutions at scale today could increase effective capacity on the existing grid to support upwards of 20-100 GW of incremental peak demand (~5-15% above current peak demand), while improving grid reliability, resilience, and affordability. Most solutions could be deployed on the existing grid in under 3-5 years and at lower cost and greater value than conventional approaches — helping us quickly get more ‘bang for our buck’ out of the existing grid.
Learn more & download the full Innovative Grid Deployment Liftoff report here.
Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) can play a critical role in providing flexibility and reliability in a future decarbonized power system. LDES includes a diverse set of technologies that share the characteristic of storing energy for long periods of time for future dispatch. The U.S. grid may need 225-460 GW of LDES capacity for a net-zero economy by 2050, representing $330B in cumulative capital requirements. While meeting this requirement requires significant levels of investment, by 2050, net-zero pathways that deploy LDES result in $10-20B in annualized savings in operating costs and avoided capital expenditures compared to pathways that do not. LDES technologies could be the least-cost option for supporting and complementing the expansion of variable renewables, enhancing grid resilience and reducing the need for new natural gas capacity,and helping to diversify the domestic storage supply chain. Demonstrations and early deployments, technology cost and performance improvements, and adjustments to market and regulatory mechanisms will all play a key part in enabling LDES to scale and provide these market benefits.
Learn more & download the full Long Duration Energy Storage Liftoff report here.
In the U.S. alone, the cement industry could capture $1B+ in savings by 2030. There are decarbonization measures that are deployable and have a strong economic case today. These measures, which can achieve 10%+ IRRs, can also abate ~30-40% of CO2e emissions from the cement industry. These reductions are critical since cement is the main ingredient in concrete, the most widely consumed manmade material on earth, with cement production driving ~7% of global emissions and ~1% of U.S. emissions. Aggressively scaling solutions like clinker substitution, investing in carbon capture on exisiting plans, and paving the road for new processes and materials are the pathways to commercialize a decarbonized cement industry.
Learn more & download the full Low-Carbon Cement Liftoff report here.
Geothermal energy is the heat beneath our feet that increases with depth everywhere on Earth. Next-generation technologies vastly expand access to this resource for power generation. In the US alone there is at least 5 TW of electricity potential in the subsurface —abundant power that is renewable, always on, and enjoys many starting advantages, including a transferrable supply chain, technology, and workforce from the fossil fuel industry. In a world where the US grid will need at least 700-900 GW of additional clean firm capacity by 2050, next-gen geothermal could provide 90-300+ GW by 2050 and meaningfully contribute to a secure, domestic, and decarbonized power sector.
Learn more & download the full Next-Generation Geothermal Power Liftoff report here.
The U.S. offshore wind market is at an inflection point. Offshore wind can deliver tens of gigawatts of clean power to East Coast load within this decade, with approximately 250 MW operational, 5 GW under construction, and over 10 GW total approved for construction as of April 2024. In the next few years, an additional 5-10 GW of projects have a path to reach Final Investment Decision and begin construction. These early mover investments in enabling infrastructure, continued procurement commitments, and experience deploying projects over the next few years will demonstrate and foster the long-term deployment of offshore wind across the U.S.
Learn more & download the full Offshore Wind Liftoff report here.
In the next decade, sustainable aviation fuel (“SAF”) is the only viable solution to meaningfully decarbonize aviation, which represents 3.3% of total U.S. emissions. Alternative decarbonization technologies, like electric or hydrogen planes, lack the technical readiness and ease of adoption that are associated with SAF, a drop-in replacement for traditional jet fuel. Investment in and production of SAF remain somewhat limited today; however, interest has grown thanks to supportive demand-side policies globally (e.g., ReFuel EU and other country-level mandates in the UK, Norway, Sweden, India, and others) that complement supply-side policies in the United States (e.g., state-level tax credits and the implementation of IRA’s 40B). The United States’ SAF Grand Challenge calls for the production of 3 and 35 billion gallons of SAF per year by 2030 and 2050 to replace 10% and 100% of jet fuel demand, respectively. The continuation of supportive policy across state, federal and international levels is critical to support the SAF industry, as is the development of innovative offtake and financing mechanisms to reduce demand uncertainty, and the collaborative efforts of stakeholders ranging from agricultural communities, to community leaders, to project developers, airlines and airports, corporates, and investors.
Learn more & download the full Sustainable Aviation Fuel Liftoff report here.
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are solutions that can be deployed at scale in a short timeframe to maximize the use and value of existing grid infrastructure, minimize costs to ratepayers, and ensure a resilient, reliable, and secure grid for all Americans. VPPs aggregate DERs such as behind-the-meter batteries, electric water heaters, flexible C&I load, and EVs and chargers to better match electricity demand with supply, a fundamental shift in how the U.S. approaches grid management. Although VPP scale is growing, the pace of deployment still needs to accelerate. Deploying 80-160 GW of VPPs by 2030, enough to serve 10-20% of peak load, could support rapid load growth while reducing overall grid costs. Adopting and adapting demonstrated best practices and leveraging existing tools and resources can accelerate VPP deployment to reach liftoff. Download the 2025 update to learn about over 75 case studies of stakeholders taking action today to deploy VPPs at scale.
Learn more & download the full Virtual Power Plants Liftoff report here.
If you are interested in the DOE Pathways to Commercial Liftoff series, Deploy Dialogues, and upcoming Deploy24 Conference in December 2024, please complete the interest form.
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